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2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Posted: Thursday, May 19, 2011 9:24 PM
Joined: 02/05/2008
Posts: 392

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced their predictions for the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season. They are as follows:

NOAA hurricane outlook indicates an above-normal Atlantic season.

Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins June 1, 2011, NOAA is predicting the following ranges:
·         12 to 18 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which:
·          6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including:
·          3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)
Each of these ranges has a 70 percent likelihood and indicate that activity will exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
“The United States was fortunate last year. Winds steered most of the season’s tropical storms and all hurricanes away from our coastlines,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “However, we can’t count on luck to get us through this season. We need to be prepared, especially with this above-normal outlook.”
Climate factors considered for this outlook are:
The continuing high activity era. Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought ocean and atmospheric conditions conducive for development in sync, leading to more active Atlantic hurricane seasons.

Warm Atlantic ocean water. Sea surface temperatures where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic are up to two degrees F warmer than average.

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Capt. Steve
Posted: Monday, August 8, 2011 7:28 PM
Joined: 05/02/2011
Posts: 6

It’s time to start paying attention to the weather line stretching from Africa to the Caribbean and off the Central America coast. With four tropical storms dousing the northeastern Caribbean Sea during the month of July and two hurricanes in the Pacific, NOAA has updated its 2011 Atlantic hurricane season outlook. The August update raises the chance for an above-normal season to 85 percent, up 20 percent from May’s prediction. The chance of a near-normal season was reduced to 15 percent, and it was made obvious that the NOAA feels there’s no chance for a below-normal season by setting the new percentage to zero.

                                      August     May 19    
Activity Type                Update     Outlook   Normals

Change Above Normal    85%          65%        33%
Change Near Normal       15%          25%        33%
Change Below Normal      0%          10%        33%
Named Storms                 14-19      12-18         11
Hurricanes                         7-11        6-10           6
Major Hurricanes               3-5          3-6            2
ACE (% Median)           135-215  105-200      100

As the time approaches for yachts to begin their journey back to Fort Lauderdale and down island, stay aware by consistently checking the National Hurricane Center website (